The 2015 Serials Price Projection Report from EBSCO Information Services (EBSCO) advises that the overall effective publisher price increases for academic and academic/medical libraries are expected to be in the range of 5 to 7 percent (before currency impact). EBSCO releases the Serials Price Projections based on surveys of a wide range of publishers and reviews of historical serials pricing data to assist information professionals as they make budgeting decisions for the upcoming renewals season.
Price increases seem to have leveled off recently which is likely due to several factors. There has been a proliferation of multi-term, fixed-increase license agreements. There has been a proliferation of multi-term, fixed increase license agreements that contribute to predictable and slower cost increases. In addition, the number of Open Access journals continues to grow although the majority of OA projects seek to shift expenses from libraries to research. This may mean that institutions that do not produce significant amounts of research published in OA journals may experience reduced costs but those who produce a relatively high volume of OA published scholarship may face increased overall coasts.
There are factors that have the potential to disrupt the typical percentage-based yearly price increases. As the practice of pricing based on institutional characteristics such as usage, FTE and Carnegie classification grows, it is possible that price changes will vary by institution type, size or research intensity more so than it has in past years. In addition, the decoupling of print and online pricing could result in significant increases for institutions whose patrons still rely on print copies.
While most international publishers set their prices in the major currencies, such as U.S. dollars for the U.S. market, currency exchange fluctuations can still impact price. EBSCO recommends customers add an additional 2 to 4 percent to the estimated price increases when budgeting to protect themselves from a possibly weakening of the currency in which they are invoiced between now and the time the subscription payments are made.
Although they are based upon careful analysis, EBSCO recommends caution when using these projections, as they rely on historical trends and current estimates. EBSCO will update the projection information if economic conditions warrant it. To read the 2015 Serials Price Projection Report in its entirety and view the Five-Year Journal Price Increase History, visit: http://journals.ebsco.com/products-services/explore-content